Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Drop of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A key narrative of England's top flight this campaign has been the decline of scoring in open play and how teams are finding goals more from set-pieces as an alternative.
Comparing goal sources to matchday 11 last season, there have been 39 fewer goals in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer overall.
Examining overall statistics, shot attempts sides are producing reveal a remarkable 370 fewer in open play than this time last time out.
And despite the significant rise in set-piece goals, there have actually been a mere two extra shots created from them outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the efficiency clubs have been at devising strategies to net from dead-ball situations.
Scoring Rates Tell the Tale
301 total goals recorded in 110 matches to date calculates at 2.74 goals per fixture, which if it continued for all 38 games would be the smallest for half a decade, since 2020-21 (2.69).
But just 196 goals scored in open-play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the smallest for 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76 average).
That campaign additionally represents the only Premier League campaign to see goals scored more often from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).
Which Teams Are Most Responsible?
Regarding goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced the largest drop, registering only four in 11 games, 10 less than this point the previous campaign.
Excluding Wolves, England's top division's drop in open-play scoring is predominantly a London phenomenon, with five out of the capital's seven sides recording five or more less scores from open play than the previous year.
In fairness, this is primarily due to them netting numerous scores at the early stages of the previous campaign rather than them really struggling to find the net in open play this season.
Conversely City have seen the biggest increase, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored this season coming in open play.
Set-Piece Success
Looking at clubs that came up with those that were relegated they replaced. Play-off champions Sunderland have scored three more scores in open play than the Saints achieved in their opening 11 matches on their way to demotion the previous campaign.
Regarding scoring from set-pieces (not counting spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have experienced the most significant jump, with both sides compensating for the reduction of five goals that they've produced in open-play with identical figures from dead-ball situations.
Man United have netted twice as many goals from set-pieces as they achieved in the first 11 matches last season before the manager assumed control, while Sunderland again prove more effective at netting than the similar-colored team they replaced.
Man City don't seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-pieces, since they've recorded three less than last season, similar to Forest, though that might be down to the change in style they've attempted to adopt.
Overall Patterns
Six clubs – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – are this term's top trend-setters by scoring fewer goals from open-play and more from set-pieces, while City stand as the only side to defy the pattern up to now by doing the exact opposite.
It will be fascinating to observe if sides carry on to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they find again their general attacking flair and commence netting increased totals in open play also.
