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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.